Talking US Politics
Even though we are Canadian… or perhaps because we are… A couple of friends and I, follow US politics the way some follow football. Here is some of what I have said:
“The thing that few are saying is that the Biden debate performance was not a bad 90 minutes, it was catastrophic. He lost his train of thought and descended into gibberish, claiming he had finally beat medicare. Do the voters want a president who is capable of such? “
One, more progressive friend, whined that the press is ignoring Trump’s lying performance. To which I said:
“There is no double standard. Many Democrats are wetting themselves over the possibility that Biden will be unable to defeat Trump. The GOP has shown that they are all in on Trump and none of them are suggesting that a lying, convicted felon should not represent the party nor that he is unlikely to beat Biden and should be replaced.
“Of all those politicians who are publicly and privately expressing concern about Biden's age, those political operatives and opinion makers who are calling for him to withdraw, none are going to vote for Trump. They all think that Biden would make a better president and they don't want to see Trump win. This is precisely why they are pushing Biden to withdraw: They think he is losing the race, that he will not be able to make the case. I can see the GOP ads now: a series of video clips: Biden 2020: Vigorous, verbally strong. Biden 2024: dazed and confused. Biden 2020: Aware, with it, maybe even funny. Biden 2024: mumbling and fumbling. Then the tag line: ‘That decline took only four years. Where will Biden be next year, let alone in four more?’
“And they want a better choice than these two octogenarians (yes, I know, Trump is not quite there). There is no way to bump Trump out. The only way to improve the options is to replace Joe.
“This is no longer the 1940s when FRD’s frailties could be hidden from the public, nor is the 1960s when JFK's illness and his infidelities could be suppressed. In fact, those who assured the public that Biden was fine and dismissed his seeming weakness have only made things worse. There is anger at a perceived coverup. I understand that Rob Riener, while watching the debate meltdown, was livid that the inner circle had not been more forthcoming about Biden's cognitive decline and had not pushed for a real primary.
“The problem is that there is no easy, risk-free way out of this. All options have challenges, and none have been tried before. It truly is a roll of the dice.”
One friend took Umbridge with that last line. He is convinced that Biden cannot win and that anything would be better and he is optimistic that a contest for the nomination would spark interest and enthusiasm. To which I replied:
“I am not sure that keeping Biden is more risky than taking him out and embarking on one of the other options. Trying to replace him could blow up the Democratic Party, split off different factions, lead to loss of both houses and maybe a few years of chaos... I mean it could. This is assuming there is hard core Biden support who would be pissed at seeing him cast aside and voters could abandon the party for the lack of democratic process.”
My friend wanted clarity as to whether I believed Biden could win:
“There is a fairly good chance that Biden will defeat Trump. Nate Silver has the probability of Trump winning at 65.7%, leaving Biden with about a 34.3% chance. Five-Thirty-Eight has Biden's chances at 49.2%. Recall that 538's estimate of Hilary's chances of beating Trump were at 71.4%. And Biden's recent drop in the polls is not voters switching to Trump but moving to ‘undecided’. These could be convinced to return to the Dems so, yes there is a decent chance that Biden could beat Trump, particularly if the campaign gets its act together and directs itself more to issues concerning the lower and middle class (inlation, immigration, homeless people on the streets) and does less harping on elite issues like the end of democracy. But, I am not hopeful that this will happen and, I would say, the GOP has already articulated a platform that would appeal to the average person. See Platform here.
“However, because neither candidate is fit to be president, if I were the King of the Democratic Party, I would pull Biden and initiate a so called mini-primary,
“To implement this, I would poll all the convention delegates and have them each provide one name they would like to see as the nominee. Beginning with the most often mentioned, I would give each potential candidate 24-hours to decide if they were in or out. I would invite the top four into the mini-primary which would consist of a series of townhalls, televised debates and personal appearances. This would culminate at the convention where the delegates would vote in a preferential ballot.”